Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Near-Term Outlook Bleak for Foreign Automotive Industry

Read MoreHide Full Article

Companies in the Zacks Automotive – Foreign industry are involved in designing, engineering, manufacturing, distributing, and selling vehicles, components and production systems. Some of these companies are also engaged in research and development of electric and autonomous vehicles, fuel efficiency and low-emission technology.

Let’s take a look at the industry’s three major themes:

 

  • The foreign automotive industry, being consumer cyclical, is dependent on business cycle and economic conditions. Concerns related to economic slowdown have been dampening demand for passenger cars globally, especially in the United Kingdom, United States, China and Germany among others. Sluggish demand in the world’s biggest auto market, China, has been hurting carmakers doing brisk business in the country. Escalating U.S.-Sino trade tensions are likely to further aggravate the economic slowdown. In the United Kingdom, dangers from no-deal Brexit have been affecting automakers adversely.

 

  • Apart from economic slowdown and lower consumer confidence, there are other reasons for lower car sales. Emission issues are also a concern for carmakers. Europe’s ban on diesel cars, India’s adoption of BS-VI by 2020 along with other norms to tackle global warming issue are also factors impacting sales. As a result of the changing emission norms, auto companies are investing heavily on advanced technologies and alternative fuels. As such, it is becoming expensive to build cars. The resultant increase in vehicle price is also leading to decline in sales. Further, increasing transition from ownership of vehicles to relying on ride sharing platforms like Uber among others is also impacting sales.The future of the global auto industry rests on these changes.

 

  • The industry is witnessing considerable changes in operating environment. Widespread usage of technology and rapid digitalization are resulting in fundamental restructuring of the automotive market. A shift toward electric and self-driving vehicles has made it necessary for industry players to reorient their business model. A host of factors such as pollution issues, technical superiority, stricter fuel-emission standards and increasing adoption by both automakers and customers have worked in favor of electric vehicles. Rapid progress in artificial intelligence and machine learning is making the seemingly utopian concept of driverless cars a reality. Considering the changing dynamics, there has been a radical change in the business models of auto companies.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Gloomy Prospects

The Zacks Automotive – Foreign industry is a 21-stock group within the broader Zacks Auto sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #155, which places it in the bottom 39% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all member stocks, indicates bleak near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are losing confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. In the past year, the industry’s earnings estimate for the current year has declined by 3.8%.

Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Lags S&P 500, Outperforms Sector

While the Zacks Automotive – Foreign industry has outperformed the Auto, Tires and Truck sector, it has lagged the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year. The industry has declined 0.9% versus the S&P 500’s rise of 4.7%. The sector meanwhile has declined 1.5% in the said time frame.

One-Year Price Performance

Industry’s Current Valuation

Since automotive companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization) ratio. This is because the valuation metric takes into account not just equity but also the level of debt. For capital-intensive companies, EV/EBITDA is a better valuation metric because it is not influenced by changing capital structures and ignores the effect of non-cash expenses.

On the basis of the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), which is a commonly used multiple for valuing auto stocks, the industry is currently trading at 6.18X compared with the S&P 500’s 11.01X and the sector’s 9.15X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 7.71X, as low as 5.43X and at a median of 6.80X, as the chart below shows.

Trailing 12-Month Enterprise Value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio

 

 

 

Bottom Line

Contracting demand amid trade tiff, uncertainty related to Britain’s exit from the European Union, recession concerns, challenging market conditions and tougher emission rules across the globe are likely to remain concerns in the near term. Ride sharing platforms are also making the ownership of cars less appealing. The transition toward electric vehicles and autonomous driving will keep automakers on tenterhooks.

Despite the downbeat mood in the industry, we are presenting two stocks with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that are well positioned to gain amid the prevailing challenges.There are also two stocks with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) that investors may currently retain in their portfolio.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

CNH Industrial NV (CNHI - Free Report) : Netherlands-based CNH Industrial carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an expected earnings growth of 0.9% for fiscal 2019.

Price and Consensus: CNHI

 

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU - Free Report) : Headquartered in United Kingdom, auto biggie Fiat Chrysler carries a Rank #2 and has an expected earnings growth of 2.9% for fiscal 2019.

Price and Consensus: FCAU

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM - Free Report) : Japan-based Toyota Motor carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an attractive expected earnings growth of 33.1% for fiscal 2020.

Price and Consensus: TM

Honda Motor Company (HMC - Free Report) : Japan-based Honda Motor carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has expected earnings growth of 3.4% for fiscal 2020.

Price and Consensus: HMC

Looking for Stocks with Skyrocketing Upside?

Zacks has just released a Special Report on the booming investment opportunities of legal marijuana.

Ignited by new referendums and legislation, this industry is expected to blast from an already robust $6.7 billion to $20.2 billion in 2021. Early investors stand to make a killing, but you have to be ready to act and know just where to look.

See the pot trades we're targeting>>